Market highlights
- Some analysts say bitcoin could wobble around US$80k if holders sell for break-even.
- The U.S. Government is running a bitcoin node to test cybersecurity, not mine BTC.
- White House crypto advisor hints at upcoming Strategic Bitcoin Reserve update.
- Tron founder, Justin Sun, is suing World Liberty Financial, alleging it froze his WLFI tokens.
- Morgan Stanley launched a money market fund specifically for stablecoin issuers this week.
- Blockchain Capital raising US$700 million, targeting early-stage and growth projects.
Macro market overview
Continued hopes of an end to the Iran war fuelled further upside in TradFi risk assets this week. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each closed the trading week at record highs. Over the weekend, however, U.S.-Iran peace negotiations reportedly failed to progress. U.S. futures declined as a result, while oil prices gained throughout the week, currently trading around US$96.6 per barrel.
In economic data, U.S. core retail sales for March came in above forecast at 1.9%, while the Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) updates were mixed. Germany's manufacturing and services PMI came in below forecast. In contrast, both the U.K. and U.S. saw higher than expected PMI updates, indicating an uptick in services and goods demand.
The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will deliver its federal funds rate decision on Wednesday, April 29. CME's Fed Watch tool puts the likelihood of rates staying on hold at 100%. In other Fed news, the Department of Justice has ended its probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, enabling the Senate to vote on Kevin Warsh's nomination to succeed Powell after his term ends on May 15.
It's a data-heavy week ahead. Market participants will presumably be watching for rate decisions from several central banks, earnings from megacap tech firms (Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Apple), and further developments in the Middle East.
Weekly performance: S&P 500 +0.55%, Dow Jones -0.44%, Nasdaq +1.5%.
Looking ahead:
- Bank of Japan rate decision — Tuesday, April 28
- Bank of Canada rate decision; U.S. FOMC rate decision — Wednesday, April 29
- Bank of England rate decision — Thursday, April 30
- U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI — Friday, May 1
Crypto Market Performance
Market Cap: $2.6T (-0.2%)
Many crypto sectors saw gains this week as risk-on sentiment saw upward momentum slowly come back to markets. While many cryptocurrencies have seen gains over the last two weeks, persistent global-macro uncertainties across markets have some analysts watching for key levels and developments to determine what's ahead. The crypto fear and greed index is currently neutral at 42.
Bitcoin (BTC)
- Opened the week at US$73,823, rallied to a weekly high of US$79,523 on Wednesday, April 22 and showed continued strength throughout the weekend before declining into the new week. This week's price movements were largely due to the uncertainties posed by the Iran war. Bitcoin is now trading around US$77,200 (+2% 7D).
- BTC dominance ranged between 59.9% and 60.7% this week.
- Bitcoin investment products saw inflows of US$933 million.
While markets have welcomed bitcoin's rally to seven-month highs, some analysts say there are key areas that need to be broken in order to sustain the upside. Bitcoin may face strong resistance between $78,000 and $83,000, where many investors who are currently at a loss may sell at break-even. However, steady exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows and institutional demand may absorb sell pressure.
A White House crypto advisor signalled a major announcement on the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could come within weeks. Since President Trump's executive order was signed in March 2025, lawmakers have been working to pass a bill that will codify it. The BITCOIN Act, for example, proposes buying 1 million BTC over five years with "budget neutral strategies".
A top U.S. military official said this week that the U.S. Government is running a Bitcoin node to test cybersecurity and network protection capabilities, not to mine BTC. The official said the effort is experimental, viewing bitcoin as a cryptographic and blockchain tool. The initiative focuses on monitoring and securing systems rather than treating bitcoin as a financial asset.
Shares of American Bitcoin, the bitcoin mining company founded by Eric Trump, surged 13% after the company activated 11,298 bitcoin miners at its Alberta facility. The expansion fulfilled prior growth plans and increased its owned hashrate to 28.1EH/s, with investors responding positively to the scale-up and improved operational performance.
In bitcoin buying news:
- Strategy bought 3,273 BTC (US$255M), bringing its total holdings to 818,334 BTC at an average purchase price of US$75,537 per bitcoin.
Ethereum (ETH)
- Opened the week at US$2,263 and rallied to US$2,425 on hopes of peace talks progressing in the Middle East. Ethereum declined into the new week, trading around US$2,300 (-0.8% 7D).
- Ethereum dominance ranged between 10.9% and 11.1% this week.
- Ethereum-focused funds saw inflows of US$192 million.
The Ethereum Foundation unstaked roughly US$49 million in ETH, converting staked assets back to liquid tokens via Lido. The move drew attention as markets remain uncertain, with Ethereum trading near key technical levels. Despite cautious sentiment and bearish retail positioning, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded a 10-day inflow streak last week, signalling sustained institutional demand.
In Ethereum buying news:
- BitMine bought 101,901 ETH this week. This brings the company's holdings to over 5 million ETH (4.2% of circulating supply), worth around US$11.8 billion. The company also bought a further 10,000 ETH from the Ethereum Foundation this week.
Altcoins
The altcoin season index is currently 40, which is bitcoin season.
Gassed about gains
- Zebec Network gained 38.1%. The payroll protocol, which is transitioning into a real-time layer for global payments, saw upward momentum due to its full integration of Binance Pay for gas-free ZBT transfers and the completion of its multi-year token unlock schedule.
Noot noot
- Pudgy Penguins gained 37.6%. The gains are presumably due to improving sentiment across crypto and protocol-specific developments. Recent developments include the launch of the Pengu Card, which allows users to spend stablecoins at Visa merchants, the rollout of PenguBot on Telegram, and the expansion of Pudgy World games and retail.
Smart money bets on AERO
- Aerodrome Finance gained 19.3%. The gains are due to Mezo, a bitcoin-native lending protocol, announcing its collaboration with the network to support trading activity for its token. Plus, Hypersphere Ventures' nearly $680,000 investment in buying AERO added to the upward momentum.
United front
- Aave gained 7.3% despite the continued fallout from the US$292 million KelpDAO exploit. The network, along with other DeFi protocols, is leading a coordinated "DeFi United" response, which includes pooling funds and resources to restore collateral backing, limit contagion, and stabilise markets. Aave's founder, Sani Kulechov, has contributed 5,000 of his personal ETH holdings, while Mantle proposed a credit facility of up to 30,000 ETH.
No sun for WLFI
- World Liberty Financial (WLFI) declined by 7.6%. The Trump-family backed DeFi project came under fire again this week. Tron founder, Justin Sun, is suing World Liberty Financial, alleging it froze his WLFI tokens, stripped his voting rights, and threatened to burn his holdings. Sun, a major investor, claims hidden contract controls enabled their actions.
Amazon x Chainlink
- Chainlink's price was unchanged on the week despite the announcement that Amazon Web Services added the network's oracle services to its Marketplace, giving enterprises access to data feeds, streams, and proof-of-reserve tools. The integration connects cloud infrastructure with blockchains, helping developers build tokenisation and DeFi applications.
Crypto ETF News
Digital asset investment products saw US$1.2 billion of inflows, marking the fourth consecutive week of inflows.
In altcoins, XRP and Solana saw inflows of US$25 million and US$31.8 million, respectively.
Crypto market maker GSR launched an actively managed ETF on the Nasdaq. The GSR Crypto Core3 ETF offers actively managed exposure to bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana, and offers staking rewards from the fund's ETH and SOL holdings.
Other crypto news
- Morgan Stanley launched a money market fund specifically for stablecoin issuers this week. The Stablecoin Reserves Portfolio (MSNXX) aims to compete with BlackRock, which manages Circle's USDC reserves. The fund helps firms manage token-backed assets under new regulations and will hold a mix of cash, U.S. Treasuries, notes, bonds and certain overnight repurchase agreements that will be collateralised by liquid assets.
- Tether froze US$344 million in USDT across two Tron wallets after U.S. authorities flagged them for alleged illicit activity. Coordinated with regulators and law enforcement, the move aimed to prevent further transfers. The development comes as Tether widened its lead over Circle's USDC after major DeFi hacks pushed users toward USDT as a perceived safer liquidity option. USDT's market cap hit a record high of almost US$190 billion this week.
- Blockchain Capital announced it's raising US$700 million across two new crypto funds, targeting early- and growth-stage projects. The firm has already begun deploying capital, with fundraising expected to close within six months. The move builds on its US$2 billion assets under management, including investments in Coinbase, Aave, Circle, and Tether.
- Russia's State Duma advanced a sweeping crypto bill establishing a formal regulatory framework that classifies digital assets as property and licenses exchanges. While domestic crypto payments remain banned, the law permits cross-border transactions, potentially enabling companies to bypass sanctions and maintain international trade outside TradFi.
- South Korea’s central bank governor used his first policy address to prioritise central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and bank-issued deposit tokens, largely omitting stablecoins. He highlighted ongoing pilots like Project Hangang and cross-border initiatives, signalling a state-led digital currency strategy while lawmakers continue debating stablecoin regulation and broader digital asset oversight. Also this week, South Korean bank, Kbank, announced a strategic partnership with Ripple to test XRP cross-border payments.
- Western Union plans to launch a U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin, USDPT, to streamline global transactions and reduce reliance on SWIFT. Built on Solana, it will initially support internal settlements with agents. The firm is also developing a digital asset network and card to connect crypto with cash and enable faster, cheaper cross-border payments.
from Caleb & Brown Cryptocurrency Brokerage.
